Where is BTC in its cycle?

Brighter yellow shading means a higher Cycle Temp (average historical percentile of the Mayer Multiple, 200W Multiple and power-law deviation). The sloped dashed line is the power-law fair value; vertical dashed lines mark halvings. Below each cycle are the days for halving→top ↑, top→bottom ↓ and bottom→next halving →; * means this cycle's bottom is not yet confirmed.

Cycle overlay: each cycle is indexed to 1 at its halving-day price; the x-axis is days after the halving. The yellow line is the current cycle; the vertical line marks today.

Tempo Score is the average of RSI, Bollinger %B and the historical rank of the 14-day return; it only measures how fast price has moved over the last one to three weeks. Above 75 means short-term momentum is hot; below 25 means it is cold. It only describes short-term heat, not direction: in early years hot readings were usually followed by more strength, but since 2021 the opposite has often happened, and over the full history there is no clear edge. The 50D/200D MAs show trend direction, and how crowded futures are is covered in the Leverage section below; neither is part of the Tempo Score.

Futures Leverage

Leverage Level ranks Binance perpetual open interest (in BTC) against its own history; higher means more crowded leverage. The funding rate is the annualized perpetual futures rate: the baseline is 0.01% per 8 hours, about 11% a year; sustained readings below 0 mean crowded shorts, and more than twice the baseline means longs are chasing hard. The L/S Account Ratio is long accounts ÷ short accounts; above its 90th percentile means retail is heavily one-sided long.

Longs Out, Price Up

Price rose over 30 days while Bitfinex BTC margin longs fell: some traders closed leveraged longs into the rally, yet other buying held price up. In backtests this was usually followed by further gains; the source of that buying (spot, ETFs or other exchanges) cannot be identified from this data. Both conditions must hold to trigger.